In this report, we’re going to explain some of the different factors, both positive and negative that can affect your financial security,
so you’ll be fully aware of the potential outcome.
Please consider the following:
- A stock market that has historically had major corrections that have collectively cost investors millions of dollars! That same stock market has also made investors millions of dollars as well.
- Why what’s happening on the other side of the world could affect you right here in your own backyard. Positively as well as negatively.
- Many local governments across the U.S. face steep budget deficits as they struggle to pay off debts accumulated over a number of years. As a last resort, some filed for bankruptcy. http://www.governing.com/gov-data/municipal-cities-counties-bankruptcies-and-defaults.html
- CD rates at banks, where are they headed? www.money-rates.com/advancedstrategies/cd/will-cd-rates-rise-in-2014.htm
Do you think things will get better or worse? Who do you think will pay for the huge federal deficit running at 50 billion a month? You think you’ve done all that you could to protect whatever you’ve already built up. But honestly do you really know if you have the best possible plan to for your future growth. Each of us has our own personal goals that we are striving for. Unfortunately, there are just as many factors in the world that could totally derail you reaching your goals.
We in the U.S. are no longer the only game in town. For years, the Untied States ruled all aspects of commerce and business around the globe. That is simply no longer the case. There are so many global issues that affect the market today that it would be truly arrogant of us not to realize that while we are still a major player, we are no longer the biggest kid on the block. Or, that we will always win no matter what.
As with anything in life, it’s all a matter of perception.
The real facts of what the economy is doing is not the issue. It’s the public perception of the economy that matters. Also, people’s perception of other’s views is a major factor in stock market movements. If people think that others think the market is fine, they will jump in, which will lead to a huge band wagon effect. We’ve seen a lot of this happening this past decade, with people just buying into the market based on the fact that everyone else is doing it. .
The key, we were told was to have proper diversification!
You have to spread out the risk appropriately. It’s critical not to put all your eggs into one or two baskets. Of course you can diversify through the different investments themselves. Such as: Cash equivalents, Stocks/equities, Bonds/loans, Real estate, Hard assets (e.g. gold).
However during the last market downturn they behaved pretty much same and went lower so perhaps rules of diversification need to be re-evaluated as well! Have the rules changed? So let’s now consider four investing issues
Issue Number 1:
THE CASE FOR NOT LOSING MONEY!
Portfolio Approximate Return Years to break even
Is Down needed to recover Assuming a Return of:
3% 5% 8% 10%
10% 11% 3.6 2.2 1.4 1.1
20% 25% 7.5 4.6 2.9 2.3
30% 43% 12.1 7.3 4.6 3.7
40% 67% 17.3 10.5 6.6 5.4
As you can see simply look at any of the percentage losses in the left hand column. Take the 40% loss as an example. You need 67% to get back to where you started from, if your portfolio returned 8% it would take you 6.6 years to recover. At a return of 10% it would take 5.4 years. Going forward should you need to re-evaluate the cost of losing money in your portfolio?
Issue Number 2:
The Lost Decade
DEFINITION of ‘Lost Decade’
The 1990s for Japan, and the first decade of the current millennium for the United States. “Lost Decade” was a term initially coined to describe the Japanese economy in the last decade of the previous millennium. The bursting of a massive real estate bubble in Japan in the 1980s led to sluggish performance, not just in the subsequent “lost decade,” but in the following one as well. The term has also been applied to describe the state of the U.S. economy from 2000 to 2009, as an economic boom in the middle of that decade was not enough to offset the effects of two huge recessions toward the beginning and end of that period.
BREAKING DOWN ‘Lost Decade’
By most measures, the period from 2000 to 2009 was a true “lost decade” for most U.S. households, as steep declines in real estate and stock prices resulted in massive wealth erosion. The S&P 500 recorded its worst ever 10-year performance in that decade, with a total return including dividends of -9.1%, which was even worse than its performance during the 1930s depression.
Indices are un-managed and investors cannot invest directly in an index. Unless otherwise noted, performance of indices do not account for any fees, commissions or other expenses that would be incurred. Returns do not include reinvested dividends.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value.
Read more: Lost Decade
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Issue Number 3:
Not Recognizing That Bear Markets Occur In a Historical Fashion
The specific dates below coincide with points in United States history have impacted the stock market. Events such as world wars, recessions, depressions, and attacks on US soil. There are also many positive economic developments as the internet, the personal computer, the housing boom. These events have affected the stock market in a positive fashion.
September 1929 to June 1932
S&P 500 high: 31.86 Low: 4.4 Loss: 86.1 percent Duration: 34 months
May 1946 to June 1949
S&P 500 high: 19.25 Low: 13.55 Loss: 29.6 percent Duration: 37 months
December 1961 to June 1962
S&P 500 high: 72.64 Low: 52.32 Loss: 28.0 percent Duration: 6 months
November 1968 to May 1970
S&P 500 high: 108.37 Low: 69.29 S&P 500 loss: 36.1 percent Duration: 18 months
January 1973 to October 1974
S&P 500 high: 119.87 Low: 62.28 Loss: 48.0 percent Duration: 21 months
November 1980 to August 1982
High: 140.52 Low: 101.44 S&P 500 loss: 27.8 percent Duration: 21 months
August 1987 to December 1987
S&P 500 high: 337.89 Low: 221.24 Loss: 33.5 percent Duration: 3 months
March 2000 to October 2002
S&P 500 high: 1527.46 Low: 776.76 Loss: 49.1 percent Duration: 30 months
October 2007 to March 2009
S&P 500 high: 1565.15, Oct. 9, 2007 Low: 682.55, March 5, 2009 S&P 500 loss: 56.4 percent Duration: 17 months
So let’s get real serious for a moment. You have just read about the market conditions and potential political factors that could affect all of us, and our children. Mostly likely you remember the US bear markets of 2000 and 2007.
Now It Is Imperative That You Consider Three Key Questions. You Need To Answer Them Honestly If You Expect To Be a Successful Investor!
Over your investing lifetime do you expect there will be more bear markets? I can’t answer that for you. You need to form your own opinion.
Do you believe that interest rates will head higher at some point in the future? And how would that impact your portfolio? Once again, you need to form your own opinion.
Now that you have been shown the potential cost of losing money, the frequency of bear markets (no doubt you have lived through one or two). Japans attempt to jump start their economy with record low interest rates and high debt. Do you have anything in your investing arsenal at this moment that can help deal with these issues? Has your investment advisor mentioned these scenarios to you? Do you think they could be important to your financial future?
You have two choices as I see it:
Maintain the status quo and hope for the best, or schedule an appointment to discuss potential resolutions to the issues mentioned above. Please note there are no guarantees.
Or consider the definition of insanity by Albert Einstein:
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Albert Einstein. Brainy Quote
With this in mind, I am offering you at no cost, or obligation, an interview to determine if you’re in perfect shape with no need of any help, or need some assistance with developing a strategy for your financial future!
These interviews are strictly information gathering. I will not try to sell you anything, or do anything other than ask you quite a few questions, listen to your answers, and mutually determine if there’s any reason for us to get together in the future. If I cannot help you, but other professionals could, I will tell you that. And, if I think I can help, and I think you qualify for my services, I will explain the circumstances of how that might work.
You’re free to, what you want to do from there since there’s no cost, and absolutely no obligation.
Many people take this offer to provide this free review. At a minimum you will potentially know more about your financial situation than you did before you came in.
You may learn what, if anything, is wrong with your financial situation based on your goals and objectives and what you can do to fix it now, before it’s too late.
So, why not call now, while this is fresh in your mind. If you really don’t know your overall financial situation, take action now, before something happens. What have you got to lose? Isn’t it worth an hour or so of your time to give serious consideration to potential strategies for your financial future? Call 610-292-0135. I look forward to your call.
Send Me Your Email Address and Phone Number and I Will Email our Latest Performance History Since The Last Bear Market In 2008. Then You Can Decide If We Should Set Up Personal Face to Face Meeting Or A Simple Phone Call Which Will Take No More Than 5 Minutes To Review The Performance Results, To See If This Is Right For You.
David M. Warrick CFP, EA
“Admitted to Practice Before The IRS”
J.C Warrick & Co.
1109 West Main Street
Norristown, Pa. 19401
Securities and investment advisory services offered through Brokers International Financial Services LLC Urbandale Iowa, Member Finra/SIPC. Brokers International does not provide tax or legal advice and is not affiliated with J.C. Warrick & Co Inc.